Trump’s unpopularity shields Labor in Newspoll and other polls despite fuel crisis

Although Anthony Albanese’s ratings are down in three new federal polls, Labor has maintained a comfortable lead, with the combined vote for the Coalition and One Nation at 46–47% (steady in Newspoll, down one in Redbridge and down three in Fox & Hedgehog).

A Newspoll question finds the US action against Iran is very unpopular, while both the Redbridge and Fox & Hedgehog polls show the petrol crisis is overwhelmingly blamed on Donald Trump or the Iran war. Redbridge has Trump at -55 net favourable in Australia. Trump is currently shielding Labor from a backlash over the fuel crisis.

A national Newspoll^[1], conducted March 23–26 from a sample of 1,232, gave Labor 31% of the primary vote (down one since the late February Newspoll^[2]), One Nation 26% (down one), the Coalition 21% (up one), the Greens 12% (up one) and all Others 10% (steady).

With One Nation well ahead of the Coalition in second, no two-party estimate was provided. An estimate using 2025 election preference flows gives Labor a lead under 54–46.

Albanese’s net approval fell three points to -18, with 57% dissatisfied and 39% satisfied. Angus Taylor’s net approval was down four points to -7 (42% dissatisfied, 35% satisfied). Albanese led Taylor by 44–36 as better PM (45–37 previously).

By 72–23, respondents disapproved of the United States military action against Iran. By 63–30, they opposed Australia sending naval vessels to the Strait of Hormuz. Opposition to the US action is far stronger than in the previous week’s Essential poll^[3] (42–26).

Here is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll, with a trend line. His net approval has slumped eight points in the last two Newspolls, and is only just above his low of -21 in February 2025. But Labor is in a far better position now than it was then.

Redbridge poll: Coalition at just 17%

A national Redbridge and Accent Research poll^[4] for The Financial Review, conducted March 23–27 from a sample of 1,003, gave Labor 32% of the primary vote (steady since the late February Redbridge poll^[5]), One Nation 29% (up one), the Coalition 17% (down two), the Greens 13% (up one) and all Others 9% (steady).

By respondent preferences, Labor led both the Coalition and One Nation by 53–47 (steady against the Coalition and a one-point gain for One Nation).

Albanese’s net favourability was down four points to -17 (46% unfavourable, 29% favourable). Taylor’s net favourability was down two points to -3, Pauline Hanson’s was down one to -3 and Donald Trump’s was down four points since January to -55. New Nationals leader Matt Canavan debuted at -3.

In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 33% (down one), Hanson 23% (steady) and Taylor 14% (up four).

By 61–14, respondents thought Trump rather than Albanese was most responsible for rising petrol prices.

Cost of living remained the most important issue. Combining the Coalition and One Nation against the combined Labor and Greens, the right led the left by 38–31 on cost of living and also led on four other important issues. The left’s only lead was on healthcare (by 37–32).

Fox & Hedgehog poll

A national Fox & Hedgehog poll^[6] for the News Corp papers, conducted March 24–25 from a sample of 1,810, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (steady since the mid-February F&H poll^[7]), the Coalition 23% (down one), One Nation 23% (down two), the Greens 13% (up one) and all Others 11% (up two).

By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by an unchanged 51–49. They led One Nation by 56–44, a three-point gain for Labor. In a three-party preferred question, Labor had 46% (up two), the Coalition 27% (steady) and One Nation 27% (down two). By 2025 election flows, Labor would lead the Coalition by above 53–47.

Albanese’s net approval was down four points to -19 (49% disapprove, 30% approve). Taylor’s net approval was down three to net zero. Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 39–35 (40–35 previously). Hanson’s net approval was down four to +5 and Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ net approval was -12.

On what was most responsible for rising fuel prices, 55% blamed the Iran war, 24% the federal government and 15% petrol stations and suppliers. But by 57–18, respondents rated the government’s handling of the fuel crisis poor rather than good. By 76–8, they thought fuel shortages would become widespread across Australia in the coming weeks.

SA election late counting

With 88% of enrolled voters counted in the lower house for the March 21 South Australian election, the ABC has called 34 of the 47 seats for Labor, five for the Liberals, two for One Nation and four for independents, with two still uncalled.

The two uncalled seats^[8] are both One Nation vs Liberal contests. In Narungga, One Nation leads the Liberals after preferences by just 25 votes. One Nation is further ahead in MacKillop, but no non-ordinary votes have been counted yet.

Statewide vote shares^[9] are 37.6% Labor, 22.8% One Nation, 18.9% Liberals, 10.4% Greens and 10.3% for all Others. Despite beating the Liberals into second by 3.9% on statewide primary votes, the Liberals will win at least one more seat than One Nation, retaining opposition status.

The Liberals’ votes were better distributed than One Nation, and preferences also played a role. The two seats One Nation has clearly won (Hammond^[10] and Ngadjuri^[11]) were in contests with Labor where Liberal preferences helped One Nation. But in One Nation vs Liberal contests, Labor, Greens and Other preferences have helped the Liberals.

Trump’s US ratings fall to record low

I last covered the Iran war’s effect on Trump’s US ratings two weeks ago^[12]. His net approval then was -13.8 in analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate^[13] of US national polls, and it has now fallen to -16.6, with 56.7% disapproving and 40.1% approving. Trump is below his previous worst net approval of -15.0.

In the last two trading days, the benchmark US S&P 500 stock market index^[14] has lost 3.4%. Since a peak on February 25 in the week before the Iran war started, it has lost 8.3%.

While the S&P is near a “correction” (a 10% drop^[15]), it’s still well above a “bear market” (a 20% drop). High petrol prices probably explain Trump’s ratings drop more than the stock market.

Silver also has an aggregate of US support for the Iran war^[16]. Net support has fallen 5.1 points in the last two weeks to -14.5, with 53.8% opposed to the Iran war while 39.3% support it.

References

1. ^{^} Newspoll (www.theaustralian.com.au)
2. ^{^} late February Newspoll (theconversation.com)
3. ^{^} previous week’s Essential poll (theconversation.com)
4. ^{^} Redbridge and Accent Research poll (www.afr.com)
5. ^{^} late February Redbridge poll (theconversation.com)
6. ^{^} Fox & Hedgehog poll (drive.google.com)
7. ^{^} mid-February F&H poll (drive.google.com)
8. ^{^} uncalled seats (www.abc.net.au)
9. ^{^} vote shares (www.abc.net.au)
10. ^{^} Hammond (www.abc.net.au)
11. ^{^} Ngadjuri (www.abc.net.au)
12. ^{^} two weeks ago (theconversation.com)
13. ^{^} Nate Silver’s aggregate (www.natesilver.net)
14. ^{^} US S&P 500 stock market index (www.google.com)
15. ^{^} 10% drop (www.morningstar.com)
16. ^{^} US support for the Iran war (www.natesilver.net)