LNP takes lead in Queensland Resolve poll, but Labor still far ahead in Victoria
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. A Resolve[1] poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted from May to August with a sample of 947, gave the Liberal National Party 38% of the primary vote (up five since January to April), Labor 32% (down three), the Greens 11% (down one), One Nation 8% (up one), independents 8% (down two) and others 3% (up one).
Resolve doesn’t give a two-party estimate until near elections, but The Poll Bludger[2] estimated a 51.5–48.5 lead for the LNP from this poll, a 4.5-point gain for the LNP since April[3].
Since the May 2022 federal election, Resolve has had better results for Labor in its federal and state polls than other pollsters, so this is a particularly bad result for Labor. The only other recent Queensland poll was an early July Freshwater poll[4] that gave the LNP a 52–48 lead.
Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s net likeability has deteriorated this year. She was at net +8 in the poll conducted in late 2022, net -5 in early 2023 and now net -15 in this poll. LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net likeability improved six points from April to +7. Crisafulli led Palaszczuk by 37–36 as preferred premier, reversing a Palaszczuk lead of 39–31 in April.
Labor has governed in Queensland since early 2015[5], but federally, Queensland is the most conservative state. It was the only state the Coalition won at the 2022 federal election[6].
By the October 2024 state election, Labor will have governed for almost ten years, so there could be an “it’s time” factor for voters.
Victorian Resolve poll: Labor down but still far ahead
A Victorian state Resolve[7] poll for The Age, conducted with the federal July and August Resolve polls from a sample of 1,047, gave Labor 39% of the primary vote (down two since June), the Coalition 28% (up two), the Greens 13% (down two), independents 13% (up one) and others 7% (up one).
The Poll Bludger[8] estimated this poll would give Labor a 60–40 lead, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition since June[9].
Read more: Woeful Victorian poll for state Coalition; Victoria and NSW to lose federal seats as WA gains[10]
Labor Premier Daniel Andrews’ net likeability was down eight points since June to -7, while Liberal leader John Pesutto’s net likeability was up four points to -9. Andrews led Pesutto as preferred premier by 44–29 (49–26 in June).
In questions asked only of the August sample, voters opposed the cancellation of the Commonwealth Games by a 39–35 margin, but those supporting the cancellation would include people who thought Victoria should not have offered to hold the games in the first place.
Respondents were opposed by 44–30 to the decision to ban gas connections to new homes from next year. By 49–30, they supported freezing rent levels[11] so owners can only increase rent every two years.
The July federal Resolve poll[12] was conducted entirely before the games cancellation was announced[13] on July 18, so only the August part of this poll would include reaction to this decision.
Read more: Victoria's Labor Party plunges in a Morgan poll after Commonwealth Games axed[14]
Federal Morgan and Redbridge polls give Labor large leads
In last week’s Morgan federal poll[15], conducted August 7–13 from a sample[16] of 1,452, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous week. Primary votes were 35.5% Labor, 34.5% Coalition, 12% Greens and 18% for all others. Labor’s lead in Morgan has increased recently[17] from a low of 52–48 in late July.
The Poll Bludger[18] reported on Sunday that a Redbridge federal poll, conducted last week from a sample of 1,000, gave Labor a 55.6–44.4 lead, from primary votes of 38% Labor, 32% Coalition, 10% Greens and 21% for all others.
Additional federal Resolve questions
I previously covered[19] the slide in Labor’s vote, Albanese’s ratings and support for the Indigenous Voice to parliament in a federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that was conducted August 9–13 from a sample of 1,603.
In additional questions[20] from this poll, 54% wanted the next federal election after a full term is served in early 2025, while 20% wanted an early election in 2024. By 35–33, respondents did not think Labor’s housing policy important enough to call a special early election of both houses of parliament.
On housing policy, 30% agreed with Labor’s position, 24% with the Coalition, 18% with the Greens and 28% were undecided.
On climate change[21], 45% (down six since October 2021) thought it a serious and urgent problem that we should be taking action on now, even if that involves significant costs, 29% (up two) thought gradual action adequate, and 16% (up four) said we shouldn’t take action that has significant costs “until we are sure climate change is a real problem”.
By 59–19, respondents supported Labor’s 43% emissions reduction target by 2030, but support for specific climate change measures dropped since October 2021. For example, 29% (down eight) supported the Greens’ proposal to ban all coal mining and exports by 2030.
The poll article in The Age blames cost-of-living increases for undermining support for climate action.
Newspoll to be administered by a new pollster
The Poll Bludger[22] reported on Sunday that Pyxis Polling will conduct Newspoll. Pyxis was formed after two senior staff at YouGov, which used to conduct Newspoll, resigned to start their own polling company.
I do not know when the first new Newspoll will appear, but it has now been five weeks since the last YouGov-conducted Newspoll[23].
References
- ^ Resolve (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ since April (theconversation.com)
- ^ Freshwater poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ early 2015 (en.wikipedia.org)
- ^ Coalition won at the 2022 federal election (results.aec.gov.au)
- ^ Victorian state Resolve (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ since June (theconversation.com)
- ^ Woeful Victorian poll for state Coalition; Victoria and NSW to lose federal seats as WA gains (theconversation.com)
- ^ freezing rent levels (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ announced (www.foxsports.com.au)
- ^ Victoria's Labor Party plunges in a Morgan poll after Commonwealth Games axed (theconversation.com)
- ^ Morgan federal poll (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ sample (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ increased recently (theconversation.com)
- ^ Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ previously covered (theconversation.com)
- ^ additional questions (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ climate change (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ YouGov-conducted Newspoll (theconversation.com)
