Woeful Victorian poll for state Coalition; Victoria and NSW to lose federal seats as WA gains

A Victorian state Resolve^[1] poll for The Age, conducted with the federal May and June Resolve polls from a sample of about 1,000, gave Labor 41% of the primary vote (down one since April), the Coalition just 26% (down four), the Greens 15% (up five), independents 12% (steady) and others 6% (up one).

Resolve does not give two party estimates until near elections, but The Poll Bludger^[2] estimated this would be 62-38 or 63-37 to Labor, a three or four point gain for Labor since April.

The Victorian state November 2022 election result^[3] was already bad for the Coalition, when an eight-year-old Labor government was re-elected by a 54.9-45.1 margin. To go backwards by seven or eight points since that election is woeful.

The 11-point primary vote gap is likely to be the narrowest gap between the Coalition and the Greens in any federal or mainland state poll. The 2002 Tasmanian state election^[4] had just a 9.2-point gap between the Liberals and the Greens.

Resolve state and federal polls have been the most friendly for Labor since the 2022 federal election. But a Victorian Morgan poll^[5] in May gave Labor a 61.5-38.5 lead. It’s likely Liberal infighting, particularly over Moira Deeming, is undermining their appeal as a viable opposition.

There will be a byelection in the Liberal-held seat of Warrandyte^[6] later this year after Liberal MP Ryan Smith said he would resign in early July. The Liberals won Warrandyte by a 54.2-45.8 margin over Labor at the last state election. But the current polls imply that Warrandyte is winnable for Labor.

Labor incumbent Daniel Andrews led Liberal leader John Pesutto by 49-26 as preferred premier, a slight widening from 49-28 in April. In questions on the recent state budget, voters supported payroll tax hikes by 40-26, but they were opposed by 39-33 to a land tax increase.

Victoria and NSW to lose federal seats, while WA gains one

ABC election analyst Antony Green^[7] said the determination of the number of House of Representatives seats each state or territory is entitled to will be made in late July. On Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the population data^[8] this determination will be based on.

At the next federal election, New South Wales will be reduced from 47 to 46 seats and Victoria from 39 to 38, while Western Australia will increase from 15 to 16. Other states and territories will be unchanged, with Queensland on 30 seats, South Australia ten, Tasmania five, the ACT three and the NT two. The total number of House seats will drop from 151 to 150.

We won’t know the political impact of these changes until redistributions of the states with changed seat numbers are at least in draft form. Green said redistributions should be completed by July 2024. If the next election is a normal election for the full House and half the Senate, it will be held between August 2024 and May 2025.

Federal Resolve poll: Labor still has huge lead

I covered the contradictory Voice polls from this week’s Resolve and Essential polls on Tuesday. Voting intentions and other polling are below.

Read more: Resolve first national poll to have 'no' ahead in Voice referendum, but Essential has 'yes' far ahead^[9]

In the federal Resolve poll^[10] for Nine newspapers, conducted June 6-11 from a sample of 1,606, Labor had 40% of the primary vote^[11] (down two since May), the Coalition 30% (steady), the Greens 12% (steady), One Nation 6% (up one), the UAP 2% (steady), independents 8% (steady) and others 2% (steady).

An estimate based on preference flows at the 2022 election gives Labor about a 59-41 two party lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since May. Resolve has been the most pro-Labor pollster.

On Anthony Albanese, 53% said he was doing a good job and 35% a poor job, for a net approval of +18, down nine points. Peter Dutton’s net approval was -20, “similar” to the outcome in May. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 53-22, a slight narrowing from 53-20.

Labor was thought best on econmic management by 34-31 over the Liberals, a narrowing from 38-29. On keeping the cost of living low, Labor led by 27-23, in from 35-23 in May.

By 56-26, voters thought the Reserve Bank^[12] was doing a poor job, instead of a good job, and by 52-17 they thought the government should replace Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe when his term ends in September, rather than extend his appointment.

On real wages, 55% (up four since May) expected their income to stay at the same dollar amount but fall behind inflation this year, 20% (down two) keep pace with inflation, 9% (steady) decrease and 5% (down two) increase above inflation.

Essential poll: Labor leads by 52-42 including undecided

In this week’s Essential poll^[13], conducted June 7-11 from a sample of 1,123, Labor led by 52-42 including undecided (52-43 last fortnight). Primary votes were 32% Labor (down two), 32% Coalition (up one), 16% Greens (up one), 5% One Nation (down one), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (up two) and 5% undecided (steady).

Labor was trusted over the Coalition to handle six economic issues^[14], with its closest lead a one-point margin on reducing government debt (32-31). On interest rates, 63% thought they would continue to rise, 30% that we have reached the peak but they won’t go down for a while and 7% thought they would start to fall soon.

By 55-15, voters supported a ban on high-risk uses of Artificial Intelligence (AI). On regulation of AI, 48% thought new laws should be created, 40% existing laws should be better enforced and 12% thought it should be left up to the market.

By 79-9 voters thought social classes still exist in Australia. Asked which class they belonged to, 49% said they were middle class, 30% working class and 4% upper class.

Morgan poll: 56-44 to Labor

In Morgan’s weekly federal^[15] poll, conducted June 5-11 from a sample^[16] of 1,393, Labor led by 56-44, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week. Primary votes were 35% Labor, 33.5% Coalition, 13% Greens and 18.5% for all Others.

References

1. ^{^} Victorian state Resolve (www.theage.com.au)
2. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
3. ^{^} election result (www.abc.net.au)
4. ^{^} 2002 Tasmanian state election (en.wikipedia.org)
5. ^{^} Victorian Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
6. ^{^} Warrandyte (www.abc.net.au)
7. ^{^} Antony Green (antonygreen.com.au)
8. ^{^} population data (www.abs.gov.au)
9. ^{^} Resolve first national poll to have 'no' ahead in Voice referendum, but Essential has 'yes' far ahead (theconversation.com)
10. ^{^} Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
11. ^{^} primary vote (www.smh.com.au)
12. ^{^} thought the Reserve Bank (www.theage.com.au)
13. ^{^} Essential poll (essentialreport.com.au)
14. ^{^} six economic issues (essentialreport.com.au)
15. ^{^} Morgan’s weekly federal (www.roymorgan.com)
16. ^{^} sample (www.roymorgan.com)