Labor seizes big lead in two New South Wales polls six months before election
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist), The Conversation
The New South Wales state election will be held in six months, in March 2023. A Newspoll, conducted September 19-22 from a sample of 1,006, gave Labor a 54-46 lead (it was 52.0-48.0 to the Coalition at the March 2019 election). Primary votes were 40% Labor (33.3% at the last election), 35% Coalition (41.6%), 12% Greens (9.6%) and 13% for all others (15.5%).
NSW Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet had ratings of 47% satisfied, 41% dissatisfied, while Labor leader Chris Minns was at 42% satisfied, 27% dissatisfied. Perrottet led by 39-35 as better premier. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger[1].
A NSW Resolve poll[2] for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal August and September Resolve polls from a sample of 1,170, gave Labor 43% of the primary vote (up nine since February), the Coalition 30% (down seven), the Greens 10% (up two), the Shooters 2% (steady), independents 10% (down three) and others 5% (down one).
Two party estimates aren’t given by Resolve until near elections, but with a 13-point primary vote lead over the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, Labor is in a dominant position in this poll. The Poll Bludger estimated[3] a 60-40 Labor two party margin.
Despite the blowout lead for Labor, the preferred premier measure was tied at 28% each between Perrottet and Minns (32-29 to Minns in February).
Independent support was at 10% in the NSW poll and 12% in the Victorian Resolve poll below. These figures are very likely to be too high, as Resolve is currently asking for an independent in all seats. Once candidate nominations for the election close, Resolve will only ask for independents in seats where a viable independent is contesting.
These two polls are the best results for NSW Labor since they won the 2007 state election. There has been a large swing to Labor since the previous Resolve poll in February, probably somewhat owing to the scandals around former Nationals leader John Barilaro.
The Resolve poll is likely to be a Labor-favouring outlier, but Newspoll also has Labor well ahead. Labor has made large gains in NSW polls since early this year.
I would expect the federal Labor government to drag down state Labor parties, but this isn’t happening so far. Federal Labor is still at “honeymoon” poll ratings, while the NSW Coalition government is nearly 12 years old.
Victorian Resolve poll: Labor way ahead
The Victorian election is on November 26. Primary votes in a state Resolve poll[4] for The Age were 42% Labor (up five since April), 28% Coalition (down five), 12% Greens (up two), 12% independents (up one) and 6% others (down three).
Two party estimates aren’t given by Resolve until closer to elections, but with a 14-point primary vote lead over the Coalition and 12% for the Greens, Labor is in a dominant position in this poll. The Poll Bludger’s estimated[5] two party was 60-40 to Labor.
Incumbent Labor Premier Daniel Andrews led the Liberals’ Matthew Guy by 46-28 as preferred premier (48-31 in April). This poll would have been conducted with the federal August and September Resolve polls from a sample of about 1,100.
The Poll Bludger said Labor was down one point on the 2018 lower house result on primary votes in this Resolve poll, while the Coalition was down seven. If this result were to be applied to the upper house, it would likely be a disaster for the Coalition under group voting tickets, as they would win few seats on filled quotas, and be vulnerable to preference snowballs.
Republic support slumps in federal Resolve poll, but Indigenous Voice has 64% support
In the federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that I covered previously[6], support for Australia becoming a republic[7] slumped from 54-46 in favour in January, to 54-46 opposed. This was a forced choice question.
On whether to hold a referendum on becoming a republic, 32% wanted to wait until after further consideration of King Charles III, 30% didn’t want a vote at all, and 21% wanted a vote as soon as possible.
Queen Elizabeth II was rated good by 75% and poor by just 5%.
For his three years as governor-general, David Hurley was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%. About 45% thought Charles III would perform well, and 14% badly.
Read more: Federal Labor's lead in Resolve poll drops from 'honeymoon' heights; Labor winning easily in Victoria[8]
In a proposed referendum[9] on establishing an Indigenous Voice to parliament, voters would support it by a 64-36 margin nationally. This result was based on both the August and September Resolve polls for a combined sample of 3,618.
This was done to have sizeable samples for each state, since a successful referendum requires majorities in four of the six states as well as overall. Support for the Voice was lowest in Queensland (59-41 in favour).
About 45% thought the Voice should take priority over the republic, while 27% thought the republic should be prioritised. And 24% said the Voice should only be about issues relating to Indigenous Australians, 26% about all issues and policy areas, and 22% didn’t support a Voice.
Around 75% said they were aware of the campaign for an Indigenous Voice. By 43-33, voters thought it unlikely the Voice would close the gap on issues such as health.
Morgan poll: federal Labor leads by 54.5-45.5
In last week’s Morgan weekly update video[10], federal Labor led by 54.5-45.5 from polling conducted September 12-18, a one point gain for Labor since the previous week.
This is Labor’s biggest lead in Morgan since the federal election.
Far-right wins Italian election
I covered Sunday’s Italian election for The Poll Bludger[11]. The right coalition easily won majorities in both houses of the Italian parliament. Within that coalition, two far-right parties dominated. Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the Brothers of Italy, will be Italy’s first woman prime minister and first far-right leader since Benito Mussolini.
The article also covers next Sunday’s first round of the Brazilian presidential election, which the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is expected to lose to former leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, or “Lula”. If nobody wins at least 50% next Sunday, there will be an October 30 runoff.
References
- ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ NSW Resolve poll (www.smh.com.au)
- ^ Poll Bludger estimated (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ state Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ Poll Bludger’s estimated (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ covered previously (theconversation.com)
- ^ Australia becoming a republic (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ Federal Labor's lead in Resolve poll drops from 'honeymoon' heights; Labor winning easily in Victoria (theconversation.com)
- ^ proposed referendum (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ weekly update video (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
