First Resolve poll since election has huge Labor lead, and Labor also has massive lead in Victoria
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist), The Conversation
A federal Resolve poll[1] for Nine newspapers, conducted August 17-21 from a sample of 2,011, gave Labor 42% of the primary vote (32.6% at the May federal election[2]), the Coalition 28% (35.7%), the Greens 12% (12.2%), One Nation 5% (5.0%), UAP 2% (4.1%), independents 8% (5.3%) and others 3% (5.2%).
Apart from near elections, Resolve does not give a two party estimate. My calculations using 2022 election preference flows say Labor would lead by 61-39 on this poll (52.1-47.9 at the election).
61% thought Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was doing a good job and 22% a poor job; his +39 net approval is up massively from -8 in the final pre-election Resolve poll. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton had a net approval of -8 (38% bad job, 30% good), and Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 55-17.
The huge swing to Labor since the election has carried into issues polling. The Coalition held a ten-point lead over Labor on economic management in the final pre-election poll, but Labor now leads by nine points.
This poll reflects “honeymoon” polling for Labor since the election. At some stage, the government is likely to lose this big boost. Kevin Rudd had a long honeymoon, but did not even make it to the 2010 election as Labor leader after winning the 2007 election. The next election cannot be predicted from this polling.
Last week, it was revealed that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison had several secret ministries. Had this occurred in a science-fiction world with cloning, Morrison could have cloned himself multiple times to take on these ministries.
Read more: View from The Hill: Morrison reverts to type in an unconvincing defence[3]
Essential: 65-35 support for Indigenous Voice
In an Essential poll[4], conducted in the days before August 9 from a sample of 1,075, 5% said they had heard a lot about the proposed Indigenous Voice to Parliament, 29% a fair amount, 32% hardly anything and 33% nothing.
When the Voice was explained, voters were in favour by 65-35. Support was strongest with Greens (81%) and Labor (77%), and weakest with Coalition (53%) federal election voters.
In this poll, Albanese’s ratings continued to slide from a high base since becoming PM. His approval was 55% (down one since July) and his disapproval 28% (up four), for a net approval of +27, down five points.
44% were very concerned about inflation, 40% somewhat concerned and 13% not that concerned. By 60-12, voters would support extending the fuel excise cut beyond September. They would support increasing the JobSeeker Payment for unemployed people by 44-27 and delaying stage three tax cuts by 42-25.
75% thought elected MPs should be required to make the pledge of allegiance to Australia and the Australian people, and just 15% thought this pledge should be made to Queen Elizabeth II.
Morgan poll: 53-47 to Labor
Morgan has been releasing its federal voting intentions in weekly video updates[5] that also include findings on consumer confidence. Labor led by 53-47 in the poll taken August 8-14, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week. This poll was taken before the revelations of secret ministries.
In August, there have been two voting intentions polls from sources other than Morgan, with Newspoll at 56-44 to Labor[6] and now Resolve. So Morgan currently has the Coalition doing much better than other polls, when their previous form usually had Labor doing better.
Victorian Morgan poll: 60.5-39.5 to Labor
The Victorian election will be held in three months, on November 26. A Morgan SMS poll[7], conducted August 11-13 from a sample of 1,097, gave Labor a 60.5-39.5 lead, a one point gain for Labor since early July. Primary votes were 40.5% Labor (down three), 27.5% Coalition (down two), 14% Greens (up two), 2% UAP (steady), 5% “teal” independent (up two) and 11% others (up one).
62.5% approved of Labor Premier Daniel Andrews (down one), while 37.5% (up one) disapproved, a net approval of +25, down one point. Andrews led Liberal leader Matthew Guy as better premier by 66-34 (64.5-35.5 in July).
Morgan polls in the past have skewed to Labor, and I wish there had been other recent polls by reputable pollsters for comparison. But Morgan shows a huge lead for Labor, and suggests they will easily be re-elected.
NT Labor holds Fannie Bay at byelection
At Saturday’s byelection for the NT Labor-held seat of Fannie Bay[8], Labor won by 52.2-47.8, a 7.4% swing to the Country Liberals (CLP) since the 2020 NT election. Primary votes were 41.7% CLP (up 7.0%), 32.6% Labor (down 15.6%), 19.4% Greens (up 9.2%) and 6.3% combined for three independents. The byelection was caused by the resignation of former Labor Chief Minister Michael Gunner.
Far-right likely to win September 25 Italian election
I wrote for The Poll Bludger[9] on August 13 that the right-wing coalition is likely to win a majority of seats at the September 25 Italian election. As the two biggest parties within that coalition are far-right, the female leader of the Brothers of Italy, Giorgia Melloni, is likely to be Italy’s next PM.
Liz Truss is set to be Britain’s next PM when the result of the Conservatives’ postal membership vote is announced on September 5. She leads Rishi Sunak by 69-31 and 61-39 in two recent Conservative membership polls. Boris Johnson, who was ousted by Conservative MPs in July, would trounce either candidate head to head.
References
- ^ federal Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ federal election (results.aec.gov.au)
- ^ View from The Hill: Morrison reverts to type in an unconvincing defence (theconversation.com)
- ^ Essential poll (essentialreport.com.au)
- ^ weekly video updates (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ Newspoll at 56-44 to Labor (theconversation.com)
- ^ Morgan SMS poll (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ Fannie Bay (en.wikipedia.org)
- ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
